This installment provides an instance where something sounded simple but turned out to be much more complicated than originally expected. Supposedly a disproportionately large percentage of the Canadian population lived near its southern border with the United States. So that should be a pretty easy thing to fact check, right?
An Amorphous Band
U.S. sources generally cited a statistic based on 100 miles (about 160 kilometres) from the border. Meanwhile, Canadian sources often cited one based on 150 kilometres (about 93 miles). Either way, somewhere between 70% and over 90% of Canadians lived within a “narrow” band along its southern border. Even reputable sources that seemingly checked their facts rigorously could not seem to agree on a figure.
So I created a map to increase visual impact, choosing to use the larger width, 160 km. Notice just how little of Canada actually fits within that slender ribbon. It’s a powerful image. After all, this is the second largest country on earth. It extends northward well above the Arctic Circle and the vastness of its territory is immense. A 150 or 160 kilometer slice is nearly inconsequential.
Follow the Cities
Yet, eight of Canada’s ten largest cities hug the southern border within the wedge. Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Ottawa, Québec City, Winnipeg, Hamilton and London all sit there. Only Calgary and Edmonton lay beyond it. So this simple observation starts to support the claim. Nonetheless, it still doesn’t answer the basic question. What percentage of the population actually lives within that narrow band?
The World Factbook published by the United State’s Central Intelligence Agency claims that “approximately 90% of the population is concentrated within 160 km of the US border.” But then National Geographic contradicts this by stating that “an estimated 75 percent of Canadians live within 161 kilometers (100 miles) of the U.S. border.”
Both can’t be right.
Preponderance of Evidence
For the tiebreaker I refered to Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada. They publish “Canada World View”. Specifically I referenced their Winter 2005 article, “A Border People”. It offered a fascinating yet brief commentary by Norman Hillmer, a Professor of History and International Affairs at Carleton University. I’d recommend reading it in its entirety but unfortunately it’s no longer in print. Too bad. It included a statement quite appropriate to this issue:
“Seventy-five percent of Canada’s population resides in a narrow 150-kilometre band pushing up against the U.S., with close ties south of the line. We are a border people. The border is our livelihood. The border is our identity.”
Sorry, CIA and all you other sources who publish dissenting statistics. I’m inclined to go with National Geographic and Professor Hillmer. However I’ll hedge my bet. I’ll gladly retract this conclusion if anyone finds original scholarly research that leads to a different answer.
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